NZD/USD: RBNZ Shock Breaks the October Floor — Downtrend Continuation Swing Setup (Oct 29, 2026)

NZD/USD Short — fading the kiwi’s bounce into the broken floor

Yesterday the RBNZ did what almost nobody expected: it held the OCR at 2.75% in a split 4–3 vote when markets had a hike to 3.00% ~93% priced — the kiwi slumped a full cent on the spot and broke the floor that had held for a month. The bank’s own track still points higher, but the move is deferred to December at the earliest: soft inflation and next week’s election argued for patience. Meanwhile in Washington the Fed held too — but with two hawkish dissents demanding an immediate hike and December still firmly on the table. That is the widest policy gap on the board: a central bank that surprised dovish against one that surprised hawkish. The kiwi’s first bounce back into the broken floor is the trade.