Market Lab — COT Positioning Intelligence
MARKETLAB
COT positioning intelligence: where speculators are crowded, how crowded, and how price behaved in every past episode at the same positioning — educational study, not a signal.
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📊 Speculative positioning boardCFTC COT · non-commercial net as % of open interest · 2026-10-06
🇺🇸USD US Dollar
NEUTRAL · PROFIT TAKING
+23.5%-1.1pp w/w
72
71
+3.1%13w +1.2%
Positioning is mid-range (72%ile over 3y, 71%ile over 52w). Weekly flow -1.1pp; price +3.1% over 4w. In the 14 past episodes with similar positioning, USD moved a median -0.5% in 4w (positive 36% of the time) and +0.2% in 8w. Positioning is context, not a timing signal — educational read.
14 analogues · fwd 4w median -0.5% · fwd 8w median +0.2% · 4w positive 36%
COT as of 2026-10-06 · price = Friday close of the COT week
Methodology: CFTC legacy futures-only report, non-commercial net positions as % of open interest. Percentiles over rolling 52w / ~3y. Pair composite = difference between each currency’s rolling 3y net-positioning percentile; its percentile is measured against the composite’s own ~3y history. Historical analogues = past COT weeks in the same percentile decile with available forward data (min 8 episodes to quote statistics). Price = Friday close of the COT week; forward returns measured from that close. Educational analysis only — not investment advice.