EUR/USD: Overnight Bounce Into the Broken Shelf After the Hot PCE Print — Downtrend Swing Setup (Oct 30, 2026)

EUR/USD Short — fading the overnight bounce into the broken shelf

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge just delivered its clearest warning yet: core PCE rose half a percent in September, well above expectations, with headline at 3.6%. The dollar rallied, gold slipped, and the euro was pressed to its lowest level in seventeen months. The picture could hardly be more asymmetric: the Fed held this week with two officials dissenting for an immediate hike and December firmly on the table, while the ECB also held but remains boxed in by a French fiscal crisis, energy-driven inflation it cannot fight with rates, and growth stuck in the red. Last night’s bounce in the euro is the market catching its breath — the shelf it just broke is overhead, and the retest is the trade.