AUD/USD: Jobs Shock Breaks the October Shelf — Downtrend Continuation Swing Setup (Oct 15, 2026)

AUD/USD Short — fading the bounce after the jobs shock

Australia lost 39,300 jobs in September and unemployment jumped to 4.7% — a five-year high. The RBA still sits at a 4.60% cash rate, the highest among the majors, but the market now prices barely one more hike through 2027: the tightening cycle died on this print. On the other side of the pair, the Fed held at 3.75–4.00% after a hot September CPI and December follow-up is ~88% priced. AUD/USD just broke the shelf that capped it for a week — the retest of that shelf is the fade.